FuelEU Pooling Market In The Aftermath of the Extraordinary MEPC83

Last week, the maritime sector was waiting for a turning point. At the extraordinary MEPC83 session, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) was expected to adopt the long-discussed Net Zero Framework (NZF). Instead, following a geopolitical standoff led by the United States and Saudi Arabia, the decision was deferred. The IMO will now revisit the NZF no earlier than October 2026, effectively pushing back the global decarbonisation timeline by at least one to two years.

For anyone following the industry’s regulatory evolution, this delay is not merely a missed milestone. It is a reset point that will have immediate consequences for regional frameworks, particularly the EU’s existing decarbonisation regime consisting of the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime.

What does this mean for the FuelEU pooling market?

In the short term, FuelEU will now remain the only active system in shipping linking carbon intensity with surplus trading and penalties. This alone reshapes the outlook for the FuelEU surplus market. A considerable number of shipping companies had postponed active engagement in the FuelEU framework while awaiting the outcome of the IMO vote, many operating under the false hope that a global agreement would lead the EU to scrap or soften its regulation shortly afterwards. With that hope now dissolved, these companies are expected to enter the FuelEU market more decisively in the coming months, both from a compliance and commercial perspective.

At the same time, it now becomes rational for more operators to build a stronger compliance position by purchasing surplus beyond their immediate needs and securing future years in advance. The deferral of the IMO NZF effectively extends the (assumed) lifespan of FuelEU as the dominant carbon-intensity mechanism in shipping. This expectation alone may drive pre-emptive demand for surplus.

The same logic applies to owners of LNG-fuelled vessels, whose banking strategies may change substantially. While banking previously carried the risk that FuelEU could be abandoned if the IMO adopted a global standard, that risk has now disappeared for the foreseeeable future. With FuelEU firmly anchored in at least the medium term, banking becomes an increasingly attractive option.

Together, these factors are likely to shift the supply-and-demand dynamics of the FuelEU surplus market. The entry of previously passive participants, the increased appetite for forward compliance positions, and the stronger banking incentives may all result in reduced availability of surplus and rising market prices.

Implications of the Extraordinary MEPC83 beyond FuelEU pooling

Beyond the surplus market, we can expect a broader operational effect due to the outcomes of the extraordinary MEPC83. The lack of a global regime will further strengthen the economic logic of deploying greener vessels on European routes. As a consequence, alternative-fuel competition, particularly in key European bunker hubs and global ports linked to Europe such as Singapore, is likely to intensify. By contrast, globally, the use case for alternative fuels remains uncertain in the absence of the IMO NZF, and many shipowners may delay investments in zero-carbon technology due to FuelEU's limited regional scope.

Over the next year, the world is therefore set to experience an even sharper divergence between regulated and unregulated routes. The EU, now the undisputed centre of regulatory gravity, will continue to shape compliance behaviour, fuel economics, and charter-party structures. At the same time, regional and national initiatives are likely to proliferate from the UK ETS and Turkey’s forthcoming carbon scheme to early carbon tax mechanisms in African states such as Gabon and Djibouti, each likely using different emission factors, scopes, and calculation methodologies. This growing regulatory patchwork (as we have analysed in our previous newsletter) will make cross-jurisdictional compliance ever more complex and reinforce the need for harmonised monitoring, verification, and accounting systems.

While opinions on the political outcome of MEPC83 will continue to differ, the facts point to a clear operational reality: the global framework has been delayed, regional regimes are now steering the transition, and FuelEU Maritime will remain at the core of shipping’s decarbonisation economics for several years to come. Rest assured that BetterSea remains your trusted maritime decarbonisation compliance platform combining maritime and regulatory knowledge with the power of a liquid FuelEU pooling market.

BetterSea's FuelEU Maritime Platform helps you find the best compliance pathway considering all complexities of maritime decarbonisation regulations. Also check out our FuelEU Pooling Marketplace for effortless and fast compliance. It provides you with a streamlined, end-to-end process covering all potential compliance options, including external pooling and surplus trading. Book a demo below and get access afterwards!

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Stay tuned for more insights on navigating maritime decarbonisation compliance in our upcoming newsletters. If you have any questions or need further guidance, feel free to reach out!

Best regards,

The BetterSea Team

Contact Us: info@bettersea.tech

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